Apologies to my fellow Canadians, but if you think about the Sponsorhip Scandal while reading this, the parallels will be obvious.

The calendar itself ranks high enough in Western cultural awareness that most people will know that we are passing from the Sheep year to the Monkey year -- a trickster figure -- and some may know that it is the Wood Monkey. But stopping here, so soon, is to pick two layers out of many and to leave the question of interpretation untouched. What follows is a timely demonstration of the mileage potential waiting to be extracted from the qualities of this Wood Monkey year through critical examination and deconstruction. We will set this year into its proper historical context, draw parallels to other years with similar characteristics and look within the year to see how it might play out as its elements interact.

Elements
Elements and their Modes are the fundamental building blocks of Taoist astrology. And the Tao knows five elements: Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal and Water.

We in the West know this term "elements", but we use it differently. These five elements bear only a superficial resemblance to their Western counterparts. Although, as in the West, each of the twelve signs belongs to a trinity by element, in Taoist astrology they cluster by quadrant. The rhythms of nature are pervasive -- Wood is the rebirth of spring; Fire is the blossoming of summer; Earth is the maturation of the fruit; Metal is the time for the harvest and killing frosts; Water is the season of snow and ice. The Taoist Fire is not the Western Fire, for the three fiery signs in this zodiac are the Snake, the Horse and the Sheep, which equate to Taurus, Gemini and Cancer. The Taoist Earth is shared amongst all signs, but owned by none. And no Western astrologer would speak of an Air Cancer or Water Aries. Just one sign claims the same element in both zodiacs -- Eastern Boar and Western Scorpio are both Water -- so it is not at all helpful to draw lines of connection here.

Taoist elements are not so much adversarial as evolutive indicators of the process of growth and change. In the West, Fire is Fire and Water is Water, for example, but in Taoism, Water leads to Fire by first growing Wood and then setting that Wood alight (which is then reduced to ash and ash is Earth and Earth soaks up Water and holds it for growth of future vegetation). In Taoist elements, energy evolves through all possible manifestations until at last, perfected, it achieves the next level. The most apt analogy is with the decanates and dwads of classical antiquity, where each sign encompasses expressions of itself and all other signs together, but at lesser magnitudes of power.

The Tao knows also five modes -- Balance, Production, Conquest, Frustration, Corruption -- which are the relationships any two elements will share. Western astrologers might see modes as two speeds of direct motion, two speeds of retrograde motion and one kind of station. When Fire comes up against Fire, they relate in Balance mode, which expresses in moments of purification or enlightenment, transformative but lacking direction. Water is corrupted by Metal even as a lake may be poisoned by mercury or lead. Metal conquers Wood even as the axe fells the tree. Wood conquers Earth even as the roots of trees hold the soil against erosion. Earth conquers Water as surely as the banks of the river guide the flood to the Sea. These five modes are akin to the five elements, but elements describe innate character while modes describe dynamic action, so that modes are a kinetic yang expression of the yin potential locked up within elemental matter.

By analogy, in the West, planets hold this innate character, while aspects and direction impart expression. Venus may be a benefic, but Venus retrograde in Scorpio in applying square to Uranus or Pluto is going to be very very weird and not much fun at all. So too with the Tao, Wood may be the greatest benefic (Jupiter is the Wood Star), but Wood with an overlay of Water is corrupted and it rots where it stands, as if in a swamp, breeding imperial tyranny, egotistical whimsy and excess of all kinds.

Elements are bricks in the wall, all stacked up in rows big bricks at the bottom and smaller bricks towards the top while modes are the mortar which hold (or fail to hold) the bricks in place. Bricks help us to understand colour and texture and speak to our aesthetics of masonry, but mortar gives the wall its strength and endurance and sets limits both on what it can withstand and on what it might achieve.

Here are the bare facts of this year: this Wood Monkey opens with the New Moon in Aquarius of 2004 (21 Jan 04) and closes over a year later with the next Aquarian New Moon (8 Feb 05). It is a long year of about 384 days, made long by addition of an intercalary thirteenth month, just as in the Jewish calendar, to keep Sun and Moon in synch. By tradition, because it holds two "Li Chun" days (5 Feb), which is the solar new year, it is held to be exceedingly lucky and auspicious. The previous year of the Wood Monkey was 1944 and there shall not be another until 2064.

The natural element of the Monkey is Metal and Metal conquers Wood. What does this mean? It means that we clear space for new growth by chopping down dead wood and that even an axe can be a tool for positive change. It means that the regenerative power of Wood is unleashed through new tools for creativity which supplant outmoded ways and means of doing things. This axe signifies an Agent for transformation and this Agent may be a physical tool or new knowledge or a living person who manifests as a larger-than-life heroic figure.

D-Day was the pivotal event of 1944 and it unleashed millions of young heroes to march across Europe and liberate its suffering peoples after the long night of fascist tyranny. But an equally valid example would be the first hundred hours of the Metal Sheep of 1991, when Metal conquered Wood and the blitzkrieg liberation of Kuwait made a hero out of General Schwarzkopf. And it was in the first hundred hours of the Metal Horse (1990) that Nelson Mandela was freed from long imprisonment for the march to democratic elections in South Africa in 1994 (Wood Dog). Mikhail Gorbachev, Simon Bolivar and Napoleon all entered history as heroic manifestations of this energy and reshaped our world in positive lasting ways.

This year marks the midpoint of the full sexagenary (sixty-year) cycle of the Taoist calendar. The sexagenary cycle holds five zodiacs of twelve years apiece and each sign expresses with each element exactly once, but the years come in triplets as the cycle progresses through the zodiacal quadrants. The previous sexagenary cycle (1914~1974) was Earth and Earth is frustrated by Wood and corrupted by Fire, so both its Wood triplets and Fire triplets were troublesome. The current sexagenary cycle (1974~2034) is Metal and, since Metal is frustrated by Fire, we can expect the Fire triplets to be most troublesome.

Yes, the twentieth century was dominated by corrupt yang energy, but how accurate is our measurement of it? Well, if Earth is frustrated by Wood while Metal conquers Wood, then we can expect most of the Wood triplets in Earth to spark wars while few if any of the Wood triplets in Metal should manifest such conflict. During that Earth Season (1914~1974), both World Wars and the Korean War and the Vietnam War all began during Wood triplets, while the first Wood triplet (1974~1976) of the Metal Season, far from sparking any new conflagration, instead brought closure to Vietnam and the next Wood triplet (1986~1988) brought about the thaw in the Cold War promised in "glasnost" and "perestroika". The focus for deadly conflict shifts from Wood to Fire and the three Fire triplets since 1974 have brought the Soviet Afghan War, the Khmer Rouge genocide, the Iranian Revolution and its war with Iraq, Tiananmen Square, the Democratic Revolutions of Europe, the Yugoslav Wars and genocides, the wars in the Caucasus, the First Gulf War, the US Afghan War and the Second Gulf War. And it has been a shared characteristic of all these wars that they lack points of definite closure they drag on and on until all parties involved lose the stomach to pursue the struggle further.

The Electoral Cycle of the United States
We have enough information now to begin constructing an image for 2004, once we bring in just one further rhythm: the US electoral cycle. Leap Years, Olympiads and US presidential elections all come in Dragon, Monkey and Rat years. Their very regularity makes them wonderful subjects for study. In the current Metal Season (1974~2034), the Dragon elections are followed by nasty Fire triplets, while Monkey elections inaugurate decades of prosperity.

Carter was a one-term president elected in a Dragon year whose presidency was ruined by the domestic economy and foreign misadventures during the Fire triplet. Reagan was a two-term president elected in a Monkey year who took credit for a long economic boom lasting over both terms but whose presidency was tarnished by a scandal (Iran-Contra) in the Tiger year (1986) which might have led to an impeachment. Next comes a one-term president named George Bush, elected in a Dragon year, whose presidency was ruined by the domestic economy and foreign misadventures during the Fire triplet. Bill Clinton was a two-term president elected in a Monkey year, who took credit for a long economic boom lasting over both terms, but whose presidency was tarnished by a scandal named Monica in the Tiger year (1998) which did fall out in impeachment. On his heels has come yet another one-term president named George Bush, in a Dragon year, whose presidency has been ruined by the domestic economy and foreign misadventures during the Fire triplet. (Oh, sorry -- the votes have not been cast yet, have they?)

We can look back before Carter as well. Nixon was a two-term president elected in the Monkey year whose presidency was tarnished by a scandal (Watergate) in the Tiger year (1974) which forced his resignation. Johnson was a one-term president, elected in a Dragon year, whose presidency was ruined by foreign misadventures. And Kennedy's single term as president included, in the Tiger year (1962), the makings of a grand scandal which was never pursued by the media or public the death of Marilyn Monroe. Left or right makes no difference, for even the best of men will be brought low in bad times and even the worst may hope to fly high upon auspicious winds.

The roots of the coming woes for this current American president were laid down in the Metal Dragon of 2000. Wood is frustrated by Metal -- like a tree girdled by barbed wire -- so we could say that the regenerative potential springtime (Wood) fails to manifest (Frustration) because killing frost (autumnal Metal) snuffs it out. How's that for a poetic description of the tech bubble of 2000 and the bear market which ensued? The killing frost took the bloom off the rose for everyone. And, in the autumn, the potential for renewal was dissipated in bitter political gridlock.

The Metal Snake of 2001 and events that September echo the Metal Snake of 1941 and events at Pearl Harbour, with the major major difference of course that, in 1941, the government had foreknowledge of an imminent surprise attack and allowed that attack to proceed because it was in its political interest to get the USA involved in the war with the full support of a terrified and enraged electorate. Or was 2001 true to the pattern even in this? In the two years since, the American military has greatly over-extended itself while the White House has become diplomatically isolated and the financial underpinnings of this American empire have begun to crumble as the dollar sinks ever lower on global currency markets. But it is important to understand that these three years were fated to be difficult years, without regard for the man awarded the presidency in the judicial decision of 2000.

A Look Ahead
Over 2004, all this will unravel and collapse. When this Fire triplet ends, all bellicose rhetoric, all urges to defy and confront, and all illusions of almighty righteousness shall evaporate as morning mist. And the people most embedded in this politics of rage must go with it. Why must this be? The answer lies within the mode of Frustration itself. It represents a blockage in the flow of energy up from below.

Gaping chasms open up and cannot be crossed. On one side we may discern the main thrust of history the zeitgeist. On the other side will be some pocket of unreality held tightly by people out of place and out of time. This pocket may well be where the real power lies, but in the swirl of events, it is not always ours to know with whom the spirit walks. Enemies must be faceless shadows, for when they come into focus, they gain their humanity and all illusion of "otherness" falls away. When the grappling hooks get hurled across the chasm and the wound is pulled close, when the barriers of isolation and insulation crumble, when the bridge too far is not so distant anymore, then we may know that their end is nigh and the moment of reconciliation is at hand when they shall be pulled into the flowing stream and either swim with it or perish.

George Bush Sr once spoke of a New World Order, but failed to understand that there was as little room in it for him as for either Gorbachev or the Communists. The Soviet Union needed isolation to preserve its uniqueness and, as the red embers of Fire cooled, the red flag was pulled down for the last time over Red Square. The separateness of the two Germanies was founded upon an illusion and that divided city in that divided nation in that divided continent was cauterized and healed of its wound.

After fifty years of war, as this Fire triplet subsides, the leaders of India and Pakistan have stepped into the sunshine and extended hands of friendship across their divide. The leaders of Libya and Iran have let the light shine in upon their gloomy realms. When shall Israel do the same? Yasser Arafat has spent these years holed up in his compound and many would like to leave him there. Let him step into the light! Saddam found a hole in the desert and would have liked to stay there, but got dragged into the light. How deep is Usama's cave? Let him step into the light! Holed up, dug in, entrenched and lurking in the shadows in places beyond our reach -- it looks good on these brigands, does it not? But how much has anyone seen of VP Dick Cheney lo these many years? By all media reports, he has spent his term holed up, in a secure bunker at an undisclosed location.

It is foolishness to think that advanced Western democracies hold the high ground at the end of history and stand immune to its tides and currents. This Fire triplet has been saturated with images of those twin bugaboos of the desert, Saddam and Usama. But the heart and mind of the younger George Bush has been as far beyond the reach of the world community as that irascible Saddam himself; now that one has been captured, perhaps the other will not be so remote.

Frustration! How well this word must describe the mood among erstwhile allies of the United States. The power of the USA to exempt itself from global treaties and institutions of all kinds -- trade treaties, environmental treaties, disarmament treaties, the landmine treaty, the Geneva Convention, the United Nations, the International Court of Justice at the Hague -- this power depends upon isolation rooted in an illusion and a myth of special sovereignty. Unless and until rude reality ruptures this bubble, the USA will remain a threat to world peace and stability.

All evidence suggests that the United States is as much author as victim in its troubles and that therefore it will find itself standing naked, vulnerable and alone when the props fall away. The pattern of US presidential elections strongly hints that this George Bush is unelectable in 2004. The Republicans might possibly squeak by without him, but such an about-face is not in the offing. Rather, the Wood Monkey heralds the rise of heroic figures willing to stand up against the coalition of the liars who have run amok these past three years. Risk will be great -- the government will take them on as direct threats to their security in power. But these interlocutors will not go away and, from January until August, the challenges will become ever more acute and painful for the White House.

What happens next is a bit murky. Many astrologers have looked at Western charts for November and wondered aloud if that vote will even be held. I hesitate to go that far, but there is nothing in the Taoist charts to discredit that interpretation.

The ballot is a call for a decision and an election result is the aggregate of millions of ballots. There is a re-assertion in autumn 2004 of the energy pattern of 2000, which is Wood frustrated by Metal. The Wood Monkey in the Metal Season will echo the Metal Dragon because the Dragon is part of the Wood triplet. Frustration! This negative energy lay at the root of all five electoral controversies in 19th-century America: 1800, 1824, 1836, 1876 and 1888. Frustration in an election implies an incomplete or split decision. But the magnitude of it in this instance is ever so slight -- not a century, not a generation, not a group of years nor even a full single year, but merely a dozen weeks, from 8 Sep 2004 until 24 Nov 2004. It feels too much to ask so brief a brush with this energy to thwart an election.

Yet this energy cannot be ignored. Looking ahead to next Inauguration Day and beyond, the year closes with corruption by Water of all that positive Wood energy, so that the forest of new growth, inundated and subverted, is in danger of becoming a swamp. Cancelling or annulling a vote would be an act of desperation, doomed to be undone before the year passed. But corruption is an oppressive pushing down of energies seeking freedom, implying that some marginal advantage shall be grossly over-applied. If a threat to the vote itself arises, it will derive from events in late August or around 8 Sep 2004 and prompt a decision around 28 Sep 2004. If October begins with the vote still on schedule, then look instead for a split decision or tainted victory. The ballots will be cast and counted in an atmosphere of sadness and bitter strife. All through this year, until August, energy is building and building towards what promises to be a landslide victory and then that momentum gets broken and what should be a rout gets reduced to a whimper.